Now that the Scottish voters have rejected independence by a
modest majority, debates begin in earnest and with urgency about what can
happen next. This second post in the series examines the implications for the
public services of Prime Minister Cameron's pledge to restrict the rights of
Scottish MPs at Westminster to vote on issues designated as principally English
or English and Welsh in application.
Mr Cameron announced that he will take Alexander the Great's
sword to the Gordian knot of the “West Lothian question”. Because the issue has
been debated since the first proposals for devolution for Scotland in the
1970s, commentators immediately recognised the implications for any future
Labour government. More on this in a moment.
What has not been appreciated is the immediate consequence
for Mr Cameron's own administration.
In my post of 17th September, I
pointed out the difficulty that Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander
would have had on Friday 19th September if the Scottish people had
voted “yes”. Mr Cameron's announcement has in fact put his Chief Secretary in
the same dilemma that I identified as the outcome of a “yes” vote.
Here are Mr Cameron's exact words: “Just as Scotland will
vote separately in the Scottish Parliament on their issues of tax, spending and
welfare so too England, as well as Wales and Northern Ireland, should be able
to vote on these issues and all this must take place in tandem with, and at the
same pace as, the settlement for Scotland. I hope that is going to take place
on a cross-party basis. I have asked William Hague to draw up these plans. We
will set up a Cabinet Committee right away and proposals will also be ready to
the same timetable. I hope the Labour Party and other parties will contribute.”
Not exactly precise. And that is fair enough when announcing
a negotiation process. But we have to presume that what is meant is not a
separate English parliament but MPs in Westminster sitting for constituencies
in Scotland and Wales being debarred from voting on, and perhaps even from
speaking in debates on legislation which is designated when it is first
introduced as applying only to England.
But what applies in the chamber and the committee corridors
of the House of Commons also has to apply to cabinet ministers. So we have a
situation in which, morally and even before legislation, Mr Alexander as Chief
Secretary and presumably Mr Carmichael as Secretary of State for Scotland
cannot really be seen to vote for government bills which affect England. In the
case of the Scottish secretary, that matters little. But a Treasury Chief
Secretary who cannot vote for his own budget is in an impossible position.
Indeed, it is a moot point whether he can vote on English matters, including
Treasury ones, in Cabinet itself. If he cannot uphold collective cabinet
responsibility, then he cannot function. It is a bitterly ironic result that a
Scottish vote for remaining in the union, for which Mr Alexander himself campaigned
fervently, might – as as result of the prime minister's announcement - leave Mr
Alexander in an impossible position in the coalition government in which he has
played a critical role as a member of the “quad” making so many key decisions.
Because the Mr Alexander and Mr Carmichael are the only
ministers at the moment who represent Scottish constituencies, the coalition
government's problems are embarrassing but perhaps less serious than those
faced by any incoming Labour government which had significant numbers of Labour
MPs behind it from Scottish and Welsh constituencies.
If ministers from Scottish constituencies cannot vote on
their bills when they affect only England, then it is hard to see how ever
again there can be a Secretary of State in Westminster for health, education,
or any other devolved function who represents a Scottish constituency. In a
Labour government, that represents a major blockage to the career aspirations
of Scottish Labour MPs. It will be harder to attract people to become
candidates for Westminster seats if they can only hope to become Secretary of
State for functions which are not devolved such as Defence. Perhaps the Home
Office could be split so that immigration, an area of policy reserved for
Westminster because it applies to the whole UK, could become a cabinet level
post separate from the policing and other Home Office functions which are
devolved. But that will be little consolation. This will hit Labour hard, and
could erode its base even in Scotland, let alone in England.
Indeed, it may be that one bitterly ironic consequence of Mr
Cameron's response to the outcome of the Scottish referendum rejecting
independence and voting for the union will be that there can never again be a
prime minister of that union who represents a Scottish constituency because so
many of the bills which the PM must speak for and vote for will affect England.
What will a rule that only English MPs may vote on English
matters mean for select committees which hold the executive to account? This
matters greatly for civil servants, because today it is not only permanent
secretaries and agency chiefs but others in several ranks who are called before
these committees. Can Scottish MPs sit on select committees at Westminster for
health, education, and other functions which are devolved in Scotland? Can they
vote to agree the committee's reports? And if so, must there be separate select
committees for England for all those executive functions which are devolved?
For a Labour government dependent on Scottish and Welsh MPs
and facing a Conservative opposition with a large body of seats in England, the
implication of Mr Cameron's announcement is that a Labour government might be unable to get its
manifesto programme of legislation through as its affects health and education
and policing and regional economic development in England. If it were clear
from the parliamentary arithmetic immediately after a general election that
this could be the case, then it is hard to see what authority such a government
would have. Its effective power would be limited to reserved functions. While
it would enjoy the confidence of the House because of its Scottish and Welsh
support, it would effectively have to enter into some kind of informal pact
with the opposition to govern England. The distinction between executive and
opposition in England would then be as blurred as it was in the mid-eighteenth
century.
If the rule extends to select committees, then the prospect
that a Labour government without a majority in England would face regular
censure from Conservative dominated select committees for a series of functions
will be a daunting and an undermining one, as the power of select committees
grows steadily.
For Labour, unless it can learn how to win in England as
Blair did in 1997, the only way out of the dilemma will be some grand
reconfiguration of the non-Conservative parties in England. But few in the
Labour party have ever relished that idea, and after watching Liberal Democrats
in coalition since 2010, the idea may have even less appeal to many Labour
politicians.
For civil servants and for agency managers of public
services in England, this will present complicated dilemmas. In Westminster
administrations which lack a majority in England, the necessity of at least
informal pacts mean much more complicated accountability. The old “Westminster
model” of executive accountability exclusively through a minister to a House in
which the executive has a majority was always more guiding myth than empirical,
historical fact. But under a Labour administration in this position, little
would be left of it even as a guiding myth.
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